Oscar Predictions

Let’s see how close I come tonight. Here’s my predictions:

Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, because Hollywood can never miss a good comeback story. INCORRECT, but I’m not complaining cause Sean Penn was great.

Best Actress: Kate Winslet, because unlike Meryl Streep and Angelina Jolie, who deserve it more, she’s never won. CORRECT

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger. Maybe you didn’t hear? He died. Had he not died? Wouldn’t even even garnered a nomination. Nice career move, Heath. CORRECT

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, because of the same logic that will net Winslet the award. CORRECT

Best Animated Feature: Wall-E. It’s not even close. Is Disney still making movies? Why do they bother? CORRECT

Best Documentary: Trouble The Waters (OK, mostly I just really want this one to win) but no, Man On Wire won it. INCORRECT

Best Foreign Movie: Waltz with Bashir, because it’s the only one that’s gotten any distribution at all. And we’re supposed to believe these awards aren’t decided in advance? INCORRECT.

Best Live Action Short: Toyland, because when in doubt, vote for the one about the Holocaust. They were all quite solid this year. And Toyland was good. CORRECT

Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire or Frost/Nixon- Always goes to one of the most popular/hyped indie movies. Slumdog won it – CORRECT

Best Original Screenplay: Happy Go Lucky or Milk – Always goes to one of the most popular indie movies. See above. Milk won it – CORRECT

Best Direction: Milk, because Gus Van Sant has been mostly neglected by Hollywood. INCORRECT, because Hollywood fucks over Van Zant again.

Best Picture: Milk, going on the theory that it usually goes with Best Director. But Slumdog Millionaire could steal it away. See previous comme nts about hype/popularity. But I think it’s Van Sant’s year. I hope it is. INCORRECT. Grrrrrr.

One final prediction: Every year, one movie is nominated for a ton of movies and wins none, except sometimes technical awards. This year, that film will be the The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. INCORRECT As it turns out, however, this dubious honor goes to Frost/Nixon, which is unfortunate, because it was a really good movie.

Total: 7 out of 13 correct

The best moment was one of the earliest, when Dustin Lance Black won for his screenplay for Milk. I had no idea he grew up in San Antonio.

“If Harvey had not been taken from us 30 years ago, I think he would want me to say to all the gay and lesbian kids out there tonight who have been told they are less than by the churches, by the government, by their families, that you are beautiful, wonderful creatures of value, and that no matter what anyone tells you, God does love you and that very soon, I promise you, you will have equal rights, federally, across this great nation of ours.”


~ by realsupergirl on February 22, 2009.

2 Responses to “Oscar Predictions”

  1. Um, actually, Disney is still producing movies. Like, for instance, Wall-E. They own Pixar, you see…

  2. yes, technically Disney now owns Pixar, but I think it’s pretty clear Pixar makes their movies separate from Disney’s, as the quality is very different…

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